Very Wet and Windy Weekend – Weather Model Update

**Weather models four days in the future are used to roughly predict patterns and trends, not specific weather events. This is not a forecast, and the actual outcome is not certain. Please use the National Weather Service for actual forecasts**

Monday morning’s models are still painting a stormy picture for this weekend. Here’s a breakdown. We’ll label the storms as Storm 1 (Friday arrival) and Storm 2 (Saturday arrival).

Keep in mind, Storm 2 is the post-tropical remnants of Typhoon Songda. This is definitely an eerie flashback to Columbus Day 1962, although no models are showing it taking a similar track.

GFS: This run shows Storm 1 making a pretty strong impact to the Northwest. The landfall location was nudged south and it arrives on Central Vancouver Island as a large and weakening 976mb on Friday morning. Storm 2 bombs within the next 24 hours and takes a sharp swing to the north, missing Vancouver Island and sparing us a major windstorm.

GFS Winds and Heights at 850mb (~5,000 ft.)

GFS Winds and Heights at 850mb (~5,000 ft.)

WRF-GFS: Being a higher resolution model, the UW-WRF projects Storm 1 to be more complex than the lower res. GFS. It shows multiple “pinwheel” style lows orbiting the parent. According to this model, one of these lows makes a direct hit on the N. Oly. Peninsula as a 974mb low Friday morning. This would be very windy for the Puget Sound. I feel that these pinwheel features are less permanent and more apt to evolve as the models come in. Storm 2 swings north and clears Vancouver Island.

WRF-GFS “Pinwheel” low hits Washington. The closer the black lines are together, the windier it is.

ECMWF: This model has been remarkably consistent run to run, but is not in agreement with other models. Storm 1 travels further north, and thus is a less impactful track into N. Vancouver Island. BUT, Storm 2 moves much closer to us. It takes a track into North/Central Vancouver Island as a 956mb low. The surrounding pressure will already be low, so 956mb isn’t as devastating as it sounds, but winds would be very strong on the coast, and north Puget Sound. Further out, ECMWF also develops a strong windstorm next Tuesday; will have to watch this as well.

Conclusion: There is little to no certainty in the specifics, but it still looks very windy and very wet even if none of the lows make a direct hit on Van. Island, WA or OR.

Stay tuned here and on the Facebook Page for the latest weather models and weather reports!

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