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To Storm, or Not To Storm…

Take back everything almost everything I said in the previous article. It appears that our local weather models are having a tough time figuring out what this storm system is going to do next.

Both major model runs from 5am Friday morning showed a weak, divided and mostly harmless system hitting the Northwest coast and bringing rain, but little in the way of high winds as shown below.

WRF-GFS Model Run from Friday, 5am. Valid: Saturday 11:00am. Notice how stretched the system appears and how far apart the black lines(isobars) are. This signifies lower winds and less strength.

Yet when I checked the model runs from 5pm Friday evening, I was shocked to find a completely different story for Saturday’s storm! It was looking to retain it’s intensity as a single strong low pressure system and make landfall on the south Washington coast and track in through the Puget Sound.

The 5pm Friday model run of the storm have it arriving as a stronger system and taking a stronger track. Notice how close the black lines (isobars) are south of the low, bringing high winds. Image valid 2:00pm Saturday.

However, the track into southern Washington wouldn’t cause a major wind event for us due to the stronger winds being more prevalent south of the system. Yet, if the models are wobbling so much with this system anything is possible. The next run of model outputs will be available Saturday morning at around 9am.

The storm does appear quite impressive on Satellite as it spins like a top off the California coast.

Stay tuned to Puget Sound Wx Geek and the National Weather Service, as this storm still has the potential to be damaging if it changes track slightly north.

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Update on the Windstorm Threat

Here’s an update on the wind and rain threat for this weekend: Basically, it’s much less menacing than previous models suggested. Continue reading

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This Week’s Windstorm Threats

We’re in the wet and windy season in the Pacific Northwest, which is going to become much more evident over the next week. If you live in the Puget Sound region you should keep up to date with the latest information from the National Weather Service and other media sources, because forecasts can change quickly.

First, here’s an update on the wind/rain event Tuesday night into Wednesday. We’re still set to see a round of heavy rain accompanying moderate winds in the Puget Sound. The forecasting computer models have changed slightly and delayed the arrival of the system, so now we’re looking at the wind and rain to arrive early Wednesday morning instead of Tuesday night. The strongest winds will be prevalent at around 8:00am.

The next weather event that will be watched closely by anyone that follows weather in our region will arrive this Saturday.  This storm is predicted to rapidly develop off the Oregon/California coast.  It will then take a classic major windstorm track from the south and make landfall near the opening of the Strait of Juan de Fuca. If the models maintain this track and strength up to the event, we could be looking at a damaging wind event along with heavy rainfall.

Only three days after this potentially serious storm system, we could be facing yet another impactful event next Tuesday. This time it would be from the remnants of the late Hurricane Ana that missed Hawaii.

Stay tuned for model analysis and updates here on PSWxGeek!

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Full Swing Autumn!

We can thank a small ridge of high pressure for the awesomely comfortable weekend in the middle of fall. However, things are going to quickly change this week. Continue reading

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A Windy and Stormy Day.

A rotating upper level low pressure system will spin onto our shores this morning. As a result, there will be some interesting weather across the region throughout the day. Continue reading

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A Weather Prediction Confusion – Possible Thunder Tonight (Tuesday)

There seems to be a fundamental disagreement between a couple of the supercomputers that generate forecasting weather models. Continue reading

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Another Round of Rough Weather

Saturday’s weather bewildered us when heavy rain, lightning and even a tornado tore through the Puget Sound region. Continue reading

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Scattered Thunderstorms and Tornado!!

It’s been a very active morning/early afternoon weather wise! This morning, a low pressure system ushered in a very unstable and volatile atmosphere sparking thunderstorms across the entire region. Continue reading

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The Storm Train Begins

There isn’t much hope for a continuation of summer ahead. Light rain and showers will condition us this weekend for the soaking of next week. Continue reading

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Summer Extension Period Coming to an End.

It seems as if summer has been given an extension period into the first few weeks of fall! Continue reading

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